The reason why Liverpool will be Premier League champions in 2025

Liverpool's resounding victory over Tottenham has catapulted Arne Slot's team to the top of the Premier League just before Christmas. This is no small feat, as the history of the English championship suggests a correlation between leading the table on these dates and lifting the trophy at the end of the season. Does this bode well for the "Reds"?

A statistical tradition:

A recurring statistic in the Premier League is that the team in first position on Christmas Day has a high probability of winning the title. According to historical data, in 16 of the 32 seasons played since the creation of the Premier League in 1992, the Christmas leader ended up being crowned champion. This figure represents 50% of the times, which makes this statistic a factor to take into account.

Liverpool and Christmas:

This is the seventh time that Liverpool have reached December 25 leading the table. However, despite this fact, history has not always been in the Reds' favour. Of the six previous occasions, they have only managed to turn that Christmas lead into a Premier League title on one occasion: the 2019-20 season, which marked the end of a long drought for the Anfield club.

This contrast with other teams is notable. While Chelsea and Manchester City, as well as other champions such as Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City, have always won the league when they have led at Christmas, Arsenal, for example, have failed on all four occasions when they have reached the top at this date, including last season.

What does this mean for Liverpool today?

While the statistic is an interesting fact, it is not a guarantee of success. As Arne Slot said in a press conference after the match against Tottenham: "There are three games left to the halfway point, but we are a difficult team to beat. If it were easy to win the league, any team would do it." The Dutch coach's caution is understandable, as the Premier League is a very demanding competition and any mistake can cost dearly.

Liverpool face a challenging schedule over the Christmas period, with important matches such as the Boxing Day match against Leicester City and the pre-New Year's match against West Ham. These matches will be crucial to maintaining their advantage and consolidating their lead.

Beyond the statistics:

Beyond the statistics, the current Liverpool team shows solid arguments to aspire to the title. The team has a high-quality squad, led by a Mohamed Salah in a state of grace, who is breaking records and surpassing club legends. In addition, the arrival of Arne Slot has given the team a new lease of life, with a style of play that combines ball control and offensive aggression.

Liverpool have found a consistency that allows them to add points with consistency. Unlike previous seasons, where irregularity cost them important points, this year they are much more solid and reliable.

In summary:

Liverpool lead the Premier League at Christmas.

Historical statistics indicate that the Christmas leaders have a high probability of winning the title.

However, Liverpool have only converted a Christmas lead into a Premier League title on one occasion.

Arne Slot remains cautious and emphasises the difficulty of winning the league.

Liverpool face a demanding schedule over the Christmas period.

Beyond the statistics, the team shows solid arguments to aspire to the title, with a great performance from Salah and an effective style of play.

In short, while the Christmas lead is an encouraging fact for Liverpool, it is not a definitive verdict. The team will have to continue working hard and staying focused to convert this good omen into a Premier League title. History is on their side, but football always has the last word.